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“A persuasive but painful solution for dealing with the mess in the Middle East.” –Kirkus The greatest danger to America’s peace and prosperity, notes leading Middle East policy analyst Kenneth M. Pollack, lies in the political repression, economic stagnation, and cultural conflict running rampant in Arab and Muslim nations. By inflaming political unrest and empowering terrorists, these forces pose a direct threat to America’s economy and national security. The impulse for America might be to turn its back on the Middle East in frustration over the George W. Bush administration’s mishandling of the Iraq War and other engagements with Arab and Muslim countries. But such a move, Pollack asserts, will only exacerbate problems. He counters with the idea that we must continue to make the Middle East a priority in our policy, but in a humbler, more humane, more realistic, and more cohesive way. Pollack argues that Washington’s greatest sin in its relations with the Middle East has been its persistent unwillingness to make the sustained and patient effort needed to help the people of the Middle East overcome the crippling societal problems facing their governments and societies. As a result, the United States has never had a workable comprehensive policy in the region, just a skein of half-measures intended either to avoid entanglement or to contain the influence of the Soviet Union.Beyond identifying the stagnation of civic life in Arab and Muslim states and the cumulative effect of our misguided policies, Pollack offers a long-term strategy to ameliorate the political, economic, and social problems that underlie the region’s many crises. Through his suggested policies, America can engage directly with the governments of the Middle East and indirectly with its people by means of cultural exchange, commerce, and other “soft” approaches. He carefully examines each of the region’s most contested areas, including Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and explains how the United States can address each through mutually reinforcing policies. At a time when the nation will be facing critical decisions about our continued presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, A Path Out of the Desert is guaranteed to stimulate debate about America’s humanitarian, diplomatic, and military involvement in the Middle East.
The formulation of any strategy is dependent on knowing the goals which the strategy is to achieve. In this excellent book, Pollack identifies two goals that he sees as the purpose of his so-called Grand Strategy for the Middle East. The first goal is to ensure the flow of oil from the Middle Eastern and to protect its petroleum reserves. The second goal is to ensure the national security of the State of Israel. The first goal is based on the fact that the U.S. (and world) economy currently is dependent on petroleum. The second goal is based on the fact that the very value system of the U.S. demands that the nation support the Israeli State. Of the two the second is the most important since it is directly related to what the U.S. means as a nation-state.Pollock then identifies how he believes the U.S. can achieve these goals. In his thinking, if peace, prosperity and the rule of law can be implanted among the Islamic states of the Middle East some form of democracy and regional stability will follow. Ironically peace, prosperity, and rule of law are also what the Islamic fundamentalist (including the Salafi extremists) wish to achieve although they appear to wish a theocracy rather than a democracy. Also Pollock understands prosperity to be a direct function of a free market economy and a secular, but functioning legal system. He therefore advocates a sensible implementation of a long term strategy involving diplomatic, economic and social operations designed to move the Middle East in this direction. And he realistically sees this implementation as running over years if not decades.He addresses the issue of terrorism with equal good sense. He implies, but does not state that the U.S. will never be entirely safe from terrorist attacks simply because of the nature of terrorism as a function of the disaffected. But he maintains that Islamic forms of terrorism are less probable in a prosperous and just society. In the same manner a prosperous and just Middle East will not solve the problems of Israel and the Palestinian question, but it may make them easier to resolve for all concerned.Now this all should sound pretty familiar since this is more or less the strategy that the George W. Bush administration espoused as the main reason for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pollock supported this action, (see The Threatening Storm, 2002), but believes that the Bush administration so mismanaged post-war Iraq and demonstrated such monumental incompetence as to give this strategy a permanent black eye. Pollock sees this as a tragic consequence and argues that with intelligent and thoughtful implementation this strategy is truly the way to bring the Middle East as a whole into the fellowship of prosperous and just societies. He may be right.